A prominent research firm believes there’ll only be space for two major consoles next generation, and Nintendo is the only guaranteed winner.
While it feels like the and Xbox Series X/S generation has barely left an imprint so far, and already have eyes on the next console race.
Nintendo is expected to kick it off with the next year, but Sony and Microsoft have both teased plans for its next generation consoles – with the next Xbox potentially as early as 2026.
What exactly Sony and Microsoft can offer players is the big mystery, especially as both companies are struggling to get people to , now that the graphical arms race has seemingly peaked.
According to market research firm , the next generation race will be pivotal in shaping the future of the console space – posing a ‘significant risk’ for one of the three major console manufacturers.
It predicts Nintendo will be the ‘clear winner’ among the next generation of consoles, due to its earlier launch and lack of competition, leaving either Sony or Microsoft to ‘struggle mightily’ in third place.
‘There isn’t room for more than two major console systems,’ the report states. ‘Sony or Microsoft will struggle mightily in a distant third place – largely depending on which of those companies can gain early momentum.’
Based on the size of the current player-base for the PlayStation 5, Sony’s next system is described as having ‘an advantage’, but it notes that Microsoft will be the largest gaming publisher heading into the next generation.
‘A new Sony system (PlayStation 6?) should have an advantage because of loyal base and strong Sony IP,’ the report adds.
‘Microsoft failed with Xbox Series X/S but has made major acquisitions to become the world’s largest software publisher. Microsoft has the option of focusing on software and distribution models over hardware.’
However, it’s unclear how buying Activision Blizzard is going to do anything for Microsoft’s console sales, since almost all of the games will also be on PlayStation – especially given the dire .
Although they’re somewhat mincing their words, DFC Intelligence is clearly implying that Xbox is most at risk – even if it’s software publishing business is more robust than ever.
Microsoft is working on another Xbox console, , but the brand has towards becoming a publisher untethered to a specific platform – with its Game Pass subscription service available through PCs, phones and Amazon TV devices.
While Microsoft can probably afford many losses considering the size of the company, there’s little reason for them to exist in the hardware space if they have another failure like the Xbox Series X/S. While Microsoft hasn’t released official sales figures, it has been dwarfed 3-1 by Sony’s PlayStation 5.
Beyond these predictions, DFC estimates the games industry will see record growth in 2025, thanks to new Nintendo hardware and GTA 6. The firm also believes the number of people worldwide who play video games will exceed 4 billion by 2027 – nearly half of the global population. Although the majority of that will be free mobile and web-based games.
David Cole, DFC Intelligence founder and CEO, said: ‘Over the past three decades, the video game industry has grown more than 20x, and after two years of slumping hardware and software sales, it’s poised to resume growing at a healthy rate through the end of the decade.
‘While 2025 will mark the beginning of that upward trajectory, some huge questions remain, including who will lose the next-gen console war and who will win the game software distribution battle. And with the large publishers focused on live services around evergreen franchises, opportunities for smaller studios will be plentiful.’
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